Forex Market Outlook 10/11/11
This morning all eyes are on the tiny nation of Slovakia who is wielding enormous power in that they are voting on whether or not to ratify the expansion of the EFSF in the Euro zone as part of the July 21st agreement. There must be unanimous agreement among all 17 Euro nations or the process could be derailed. While the market is expecting this vote to pass, there is some trepidation until it is a done deal.
So the markets have started the morning in mild risk-aversion mode after yesterday's tremendous move higher in stocks and commodities. The S&P 500 had its largest daily gain in nearly 2 months on a light-volume session due to the Columbus Day holiday here in the US with the bond market closed.
Today kicks off the start of earnings season here in the US for corporations so the markets will be keeping an eye on how corporations are doing and what their outlook is for the immediate future. This is important for the forex market because the correlation of stocks and their role in the "risk trade" to currencies could be the driver of global markets in the near-term.
The Euro debt crisis is still looming in the background but the announcement that a complete resolution will be forthcoming in early November has put fears on hold for at least the next couple of weeks.
Economic data due out this week will contribute to the overall market picture but there is no single piece of market-moving news that will reverse risk themes. That's not to say we won't see volatility in individual currencies, but rather that this week will be dominated by equities and corporate earnings and the Euro debt saga.
Early this morning, the UK reported lower than expected, industrial and manufacturing production figures, though the misses were slight by about .1%. While we know that the economy is contracting, but it is hanging in there pretty well at this point considering the government austerity. There is also a note out that the BOE may be abandoning a part of the additional QE it announced last week due to the high prices of bonds they want to purchase. UK employment figures are due out tomorrow.
In Japan, the BOJ economic report showed that they see signs of the economy improving and consumer confidence figures came in better than expected. The minutes from their most recent rate policy meeting will be released tomorrow and it could show their concern about Yen strength and their willingness to act (intervene) to weaken it.
Speaking of meeting minutes, the Fed minutes from last week's FOMC meeting will also be out today and may show Bernanke's willingness to ease monetary policy further if economic conditions worsen. This could give stocks an additional boost ahead of the earnings releases which have already seen the bar lowered by analyst and the market alike. This means that it will be easier to meet and/or exceed expectations, which could strengthen the risk trade.
There are many in the market who are expecting a major move in equities to the upside to close out the year which could be indicative of the resolution of the Euro debt crisis and the potential end to political gridlock in Washington DC.
Sadly, Washington DC may remain broken until the next elections in 2012 and tonight's vote on the President's jobs bill will likely result in non-passage as most see it as doubling-down on bad policy and throwing good money after bad. While these short-term solutions may feel good in the immediate term, the long-term effects are lacking.
And this is part of the overall problem that the administration doesn't understand--that people and businesses are not going to make long-term decisions on short-term placebos intended to get them re-elected! You can only use other people's money to buy votes for so long so when the money runs out, the game is over. Unless you create a new game--such as class warfare--that we are seeing today in these Wall St. occupation protests.
While I believe the despair and anger in this country is warranted in many respects, it is misdirected. While the banks haven't done anyone any favors, Washington DC is the far bigger culprit and the people should take an introspective look as they are the ones who voted this mess into office.
Regardless, markets will go up and markets will go down, so continue to trade and rise above the malaise!
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