Highlights of Union Budget for 2012-13
BUDGET: Global crisis has affected usGDP growth in FY12 seen 6.9%
FY12 econ performance has been disappointing
India is still global frontrunner in econ growth
Growth moderated, fiscal balance deteriorated FY12
Tight monetary policy impacted investment in FY12
Agri, services continued to perform well
Slowdown can almost totally be ascribed to industry
Fiscal policy had to absorb subsidy payments
Mfg sector on path of recovery
At juncture where it is must to take hard decision
Need to improve supply side management
Signs of recovery in coal, fertilizer, cement sectors
Have to address problem of malnutrition
FY13 focus on domestic demand driven recovery
Indian manufacturing appears to be on curve of revival
Demand driven growth is objective of budget
"Mere words are not enough"
Need credible roadmap to meet objectives
India GDP seen growing 6.9% in FY12
Demand driven growth is objective of budget
Headline inflation remain hard most of FY12
FY12 agri growth seen 2.5%
FY12 industry growth seen 3.9%
FY12 services growth seen 9.4%
Need to bridge gap in food storage, transportation Expect inflation to decline in few months Headline inflation seen stable after few mos
Inflation largely structural in nature
External sector development encouraging in H1FY12
Inflation driven by farm supply constraints
Prolonged period of high inflation tend to get generalised FY12 current account gap seen around 3.6% of GDP
India successfully diversified export, import markets
Expect FY13 current acct deficit to be smaller than FY12 FY13 GDP seen 7.6% plus or minus 25 bps
Inflation to be lower in FY13 than in FY12
External trade in FY12 first half was encouraging
FY12 fiscal balance deteriorated due to subsidies
High interest rates hurt corporate taxes FY12
FY12 average crude price seen $115/bbl vs $90 estimated
FRBM implementation now back on track
FY12 fisc balance worsened on direct tax mop-up slippage.....................
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