Forex Market Outlook 11/30/11
Wow what a morning! I was about to tell you about all of the mundane things that have happened so far overnight and what to expect later today--and then the markets got hit with the unexpected.
Central banks around the globe including the: Fed, BOE, ECB, BOC, and the BOJ, essentially made a formal, coordinated intervention in the currency markets by reducing existing swap lines by 50 basis points. This move is intended to free up liquidity to help prevent the Euro and global debt crisis from becoming a liquidity crisis (shortage of cash) to help countries service their debt.
This means that more cash is available and immediately the US dollar (as the world's reserve currency) weakened, to the tune of 200 pips vs. Euro, 200 pips vs. Aussie, 120 pips vs. Pound. This is an incredible move and I'm sorry for those of you that were short risk in this market--especially if you don't use protective stops!
Yesterday's target of 1.0250 from the chart of the day on AUD/USD was easily met and in fact left money on the table. But 250 pips in a day is very welcome!
Yesterday's EU Finance Ministers meeting produced little except that they are trying to drag the IMF into a larger role to cover the EFSF and they have agreed to back Euro zone bonds at 30%, essentially meaning that if default occurs investors would lose "only" 70% of their investment. Gee, thanks! Meanwhile yields continue to rise in the periphery countries, though the German 1-year note now has a negative yield!
Things are moving along in Germany, as their unemployment rate ticked slightly lower than expected to 6.9%, though overall unemployment in the Euro zone is at 10.3%, slightly higher than expected.
The other big news of the morning was that China had reduced their lending reserve requirements for the first time in 3 years, essentially making lending easier for the banks. This should act as a catalyst for global demand, and the markets moved higher on the news. Of course this action was trumped by dramatic move we saw later in the morning.
Both stocks and global equities are up big-time on this news, with oil leading the charge at around 101.50. Take a look at my video from earlier this morning prior to the news, it will show you the dramatic difference.
Here in the US, the ADP employment change came in much better than expected, showing that 206K jobs were added vs. an expected 130K. Some may try to extrapolate this figure to a gain in NFP on Friday, but the two are uncorrelated.
Later this morning we will get pending home sales figures which are expected to show a slight gain. Housing figures have been weak very recently and this lagging indicator will likely be irrelevant after the moves we've seen already today. And later today we will also get the release of the Fed beige book survey though we have recently heard that QE3 may be on the table, today's action may put that on hold for a while. Until the money dries up again, that is.
Canada will be reporting GDP figures later this morning which are expected to show a monthly gain of .3%, pushing the YoY to 2,7% from last month's reading of 2.4%.
I cannot begin to describe the dramatic nature of this coordinated move from earlier this morning. Part of the "problem" with all of this market transparency is that big players can usually get in front of the proposed action and sometimes negate the intended effects. So they have to spring the news when no one expects it.
That's not to say that I always agree with actions that intervene with free markets, however when global problems are perhaps much bigger than people know, preventing economic Armageddon is appreciated. I don't claim to know the extent of the problems in Europe or what the potential of a failure might be except to say that it would be bad.
This morning's action essentially buys more time for those that are in trouble to get their houses in order and fix the problems that ail them. For today's action solves the pending global liquidity problem, but it does not solve the solvency and debt problems.
The Euro zone and banks with exposure to the Euro debt need to use this opportunity to come up with real solutions otherwise we have just kicked the can down the road a little more. Expect inflation to pick up in a major way in at least commodities prices, with the outcome uncertain.
Volatility is still very high, so be careful with your trading. Always use stop losses, and expect the unexpected!
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