Forex Market Outlook 10/13/11
Yesterday's release of the FOMC meeting minutes was a complete dud and market hopes that the Fed was close to QE3 went unrealized. Part of that hope came from Bernanke's speech to the Joint Economic Committee earlier this month, but it seems as though that mention of further easing was intended to keep the markets from falling off a cliff.
Yet they are no closer to QE3 then previously thought, so the "free money trade" will have to wait for another day or for the economy to worsen dramatically, which is not out of the realm of possibility if the EU fails to meet their deadline on the debt crisis resolution. The clock is ticking.
News out of Europe this morning showed that German CPI was slightly higher than expected though not enough of a gain to cause the ECB concern. What was more of a concern though was the ECB's monthly report for October which was largely negative. Citing "moderate to lower growth", reduced outlooks, and the like, the ECB essentially confirmed what we already know.
What was more concerting to the market though was a report out of China that showed that their gains in exports declined more than expected, showing a gain of only 17.4% vs. an expected 20.5%. While they will cry that the strengthening Yuan is hurting them, no one else will shed a tear as their trade surplus came in at $14.5B, which contrasted with the US trade deficit of 45.6B makes them look silly. The Senate passed the Bill to impose tariffs on China if they don't move to revalue their currency, which could ignite a trade war and is likely not going to help the global economy recover. I've discussed an alternate solution to tariffs in this morning's video.
However there was some good news for those with risk appetite, as Australia added 20.4K jobs to their economy vs. an expected 10K, which helped push their unemployment rate down to 5.2% from the expected and previous 5.3%. While the Aussie has pulled back on general risk aversion, the slight decline may reverse throughout the day.
Additionally, the Bank of Japan released the minutes from their rate policy meeting which called for additional monetary easing to attempt to weaken the Yen. Citing problems in Europe to global economic stability, prolonged Yen strength will harm exports though recent economic data in Japan has been better than expected.
Here in the US, initial jobless claims figures came in as expected, with 404K newly unemployed. 400K has been the "norm" which is unfortunate as we are not adding enough jobs to move the needle. Perhaps the passage of the Free Trade Agreements that have been sitting around for over 4 years will help, but structural reform is more likely needed.
Since the President's "jobs" bill was rejected by the Senate, we are likely going to have to wait for the debt "super committee" to attempt to reduce our deficit and provide confidence to the markets. This is a big task and much like the Euro commission that is charged with finding the resolution to the Euro debt crisis, essentially puts us in a holding pattern until then.
So I'm going to focus on corporate earnings here in the US, which if the majority come in better than expected, could revive risk appetite in the markets. The general mood surrounding the markets seems to positive, though that could be derailed by the Europe failing to resolve by their self-imposed dead-line, or more of the same Washington DC gridlock.
The inverse correlation between the S&P 500 and the US dollar is still pretty high, so the risk trades are still intact and could be driven by stocks rather than perceived global economic risk in the near-term.
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